Guest Blog: A National "Climate Service"?
19/06/09 18:08
Paul Fleming works on
freshwater climate adaptation issues for the
US City of
Seattle, Washington. Seattle obtains
much of its water from large rivers, and much of
that water during the summer and fall is derived
from the melting of annual snowpack — a
process that is shifting rapidly as a result of
climate change.
Among his other
responsibilities, Paul helps the city’s water
supply utility think about how to manage their
water resources in fiscally prudent, flexible
ways, given that Seattle’s “normal” climate is
altering rapidly. In early May, Paul spoke
before the U.S. Congress in regard to the
Waxman/Markey bill (discussed in several
previous blogs here, most recently
here)
about the need for a National Climate Service —
modeled in part on the existing National Weather
Service. Such a group would likely
focus on delivering analytical services for how
climate is changing in critical parameters in
particular regions — an excellent idea,
which would be a great boon for facilitating and
groundtruthing climate adaptation efforts. Below
is his statement, as well as the statement of
marine biologist Jane
Lubchenco, who is now the head
of NOAA, which is the agency that
would host both the Weather Service and the
Climate Service. Many thanks to Paul for
supplying his remarks! — JM
Introduction
Good morning Chairman Baird, Ranking Member Inglis and Members of the Subcommittee. Thank for this opportunity to testify before your committee today. My name is Paul Fleming, I am the Manager of the Climate and Sustainability Group at Seattle Public Utilities (SPU). SPU provides reliable drinking water to 1.3 million people in the greater Seattle area, and provides sewer, drainage and solid waste services to Seattle residents. My position at SPU is responsible for developing SPU’s climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, and establishing partnerships with other utilities and research organizations in the U.S. and abroad.
SPU, like many water utilities in the US, is an active participant in numerous water sector climate change initiatives related to the management, policy and technical challenges and research needs that arise from the projected impacts of climate change. We are one of the founding members of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), a group of eight urban water suppliers that collectively provide drinking water services to nearly 36 million people. WUCA is currently funding two projects: one on decision support systems for the water sector and another on an assessment of climate modeling. SPU is also active in the climate change initiatives of the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies, the American Water Works Association and the International Water Association. SPU is currently advising both the Water Research Foundation and the Water Environment Research Foundation as they develop their climate change research agendas for the drinking water and clean water sectors respectively and continue their leadership roles in supporting emerging research. We are also reaching out to utilities and researchers in an effort to glean best practices from other parts of the world. This engagement with multiple entities reflects SPU’s belief in the importance of climate change for the water sector and our commitment to continually enhance our institutional capacity to prepare for the implications of climate change. This depth of engagement, understanding and commitment is common to varying degrees amongst numerous large water utilities in the U.S.
The City of Seattle has made addressing climate change a top priority. Our mayor, Greg Nickels, has been the leader in an effort to engage other mayors across the political spectrum on the issue of climate change and the need to take local actions. In addition, the City’s municipally-owned electric utility, Seattle City Light, will likely see significant impacts to its hydropower-based operations as climate change affect our region. They support my testimony here today.
Today, I will highlight some of the existing federal monitoring and forecasting services Seattle relies on for water supply system operations and planning, describe how we use these services to help ensure that we meet our responsibilities and policy objectives and describe attributes that we would like to see in a National Climate Service.
Seattle’s use of Federal Monitoring and Forecasting Services
Seattle’s water supply is derived from two watersheds located in the Central Cascade Mountains in Washington State: the Cedar River and Tolt River Watersheds. These watersheds receive precipitation in the form of rain and snow. Seattle manages these watersheds, the Cedar and Tolt Rivers, and our mountain-based reservoirs, to achieve the following objectives:
• Water supply for people
• Instream flows for aquatic species
• Flood management
• Dam safety
• Water quality
Given the dynamic nature of managing our water supply system, with our multiple objectives, capricious weather and the need to balance immediate and short term issues with longer term planning horizons, it is critical that we have access to real-time monitoring and forecasting information. Seattle relies on several federal agency monitoring and forecasting services to help inform our decision-making. These services include, but are not limited to:
• US Geological Survey’s (USGS) stream gages
• Natural Resources Conservation Service’s (NRCS) SnoTel sites
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service’s weather observations and daily and mid range weather forecasts,
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s 30-90 day and multi-seasonal climate outlooks
• NOAA’s Remote Sensing of Snowcover
Seattle uses these services and others for operational planning at multiple time scales, from day to day to several months out, to manage our rivers and reservoirs in order to meet our objectives. USGS gages are used to help us comply with our landmark Cedar River Habitat Conservation Plan and to protect salmon habitat and salmon redds on the Cedar River. The National Weather Service’s general weather forecasts inform our reservoir operations and help us time releases of water. NRCS’s SnoTel sites provide us with estimates of snowpack which we can use to project how much water is embedded in the snow blanketing the hills in our watersheds. These services are our eyes and ears on the ground as well as the binoculars peering over the horizon. These services also serve as an authoritative and credible source of information, which is critical for the type of collaborative resourc management decision-making that we engage in on a regular basis.
In addition to using these services, Seattle provides financial and in-kind support for some of them. The Tolt and Cedar River Basins are extensively gauged and networked, partially as a result of a cooperative funding arrangement between SPU, Seattle City Light and USGS. In 2009, SPU will contribute roughly $125,000 towards this arrangement. We greatly appreciate this arrangement and the excellent work of the Tacoma, Washington Office of the USGS. For the NRCS’s SnoTel program, we provide in-kind surveying of the land where their equipment is located. We have invested in these systems and appreciate and depend on continued federal support for them.
Another federal service we have used is NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) program. In the Pacific Northwest, the RISA program is represented by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW-CIG). UW-CIG has been instrumental in helping to elevate the issue of climate change in the central Puget Sound region and Washington State. The research UW-CIG has conducted has greatly advanced the region’s ability to understand how climate change is projected to affect different sectors of the region and state. Seattle benefited directly from engaging with the UW-CIG to conduct two studies within the past five years on how climate change is projected to affect the hydrology of the watersheds where we operate.
The most recent study we completed involved the creation of three climate scenarios that were based on three Global Climate Models (GCMs) coupled with two emission scenarios and downscaled to the central Puget Sound region. The three scenarios projected decreases in our water supply ranging from 6% to 21% by 2050 due to climate change. Given this projected range of impacts, we then developed initial adaptation strategies and evaluated their effectiveness in offsetting the reductions in supply. The first strategies we’ve evaluated were “no-regrets” strategies: operational adjustments that are low to no-cost, enhance our operational flexibility and which could be implemented quickly. By deploying this initial portfolio of strategies we estimated we could offset the impacts of climate change in two out of the three climate scenarios.
This assessment also reinforced the role of water conservation as an essential component of our climate change strategy. Since 1984, our total water consumption has declined by 28% while population has grown by 26%. As a result, water consumption per capita is 43% less than it was a year ago. This has been due to the combined effects of higher water rates (and a seasonal and inclining block rate structure), the Washington State plumbing code, over two decades of aggressive conservation programs, and improved system operations. We are also committed to saving an additional fifteen million gallons a day (mgd) through conservation programs over the next 20 years. By 2030, we project that water demand will still be less than it was in 1965 even though we'll be serving 80% more people.
This engagement with the research community has strengthened Seattle’s knowledge of the implications of climate change, stimulated our development of initial adaptation strategies and enhanced our institutional capacity. We look forward to continued interaction with UW-CIG, federal agencies and the research community as a whole in the co-production of knowledge.
A National Climate Service
It is often noted that water utilities are on the “front lines” of, or “first responders” in, the battle against climate change. While this characterization is apt, it doesn’t fully capture the breadth of activities the water sector pursues in operating and managing our systems and in identifying and preparing for the impacts of climate change. To continue with the martial metaphor, we’re not just on the front lines, but we’re also in the war room gleaning intelligence data from original research and reconnaissance we have conducted; we’re often using satellite data to determine how much resources (e.g. water) we have to utilize; we’re assessing threat levels through vulnerability assessments, developing new tools to counter those threats, and building alliances to share information and resources. The broad spectrum of strategic and tactical activities that the water sector is engaged in illustrate that we take the issue of climate change seriously and that we have the capability to do a lot of work. We need, however, the support of, and continued collaboration with, the federal government and welcome an integrated and user-driven National Climate Service that hastens our ability to identify and prepare for the impacts of climate change.
As an active user of several federal services and as a partner and collaborator with numerous federal programs, Seattle believes there are potentially great benefits associated with the creation of a National Climate Service. Having extensive experience with NOAA’s RISA program, we view that as a potential model, particularly given its distributed geographic structure. Such a structure has the potential of establishing strong linkages between the research community and the relevant sectors in a given region and creating tailored research and services that help to address a region’s needs. If it were to serve as a potential framework for a NCS, the RISA model, however, would need to be strengthened and expanded along the following lines:
• Involve multiple federal agencies in the provision of services. The water sector uses the services of, interacts with and is regulated by several agencies. Having multiple agencies involved in the NCS and viewing it as an authoritative source of climate information would facilitate our interactions with these agencies.
• Involve multiple sectors in the development and implementation of programs and services provided by the NCS. As I have noted before, the water sector is engaged on the issue of climate change and is enhancing its capacity to understand and prepare for the impacts. The NCS should recognize this capacity and view the water sector not just as an end-user but as a collaborator as well. This is particularly salient with respect to vulnerability assessments, where a utility’s tacit knowledge of its system operations can “ground truth” the assessment and identify and evaluate the effectiveness of operational adjustments. Such an emphasis could also help to complement the current university context for RISA program delivery.
• Ensure there is consistency across the distributed structure by establishing a common set of goals, objectives, and tenets across the country so that the NCS is responsive to the water sector’s need for “actionable science” and that the distributed “branches” of the NCS are well coordinated.
• Increase overall funding for an NCS while maintaining and expanding, if necessary, existing monitoring networks and forecasting services. These services are essential for operations and planning today and will be even more critical in the future;
• Build upon existing partnerships that are effective in delivering services. As noted previously Seattle has established relationships with USGS and NRCS to support the ongoing operations and maintenance of stream flow and snowpack monitoring infrastructure.
• Establish a structure that allows for an option to scale the services beyond the U.S. As the federal government continues to engage internationally on climate change, there is great potential for the U.S. to assist other countries in enhancing their adaptive capacity as well as learning from them while also addressing potential national security issues. Through appropriate agreements or perhaps as part of foreign aid programs, the National Climate Service potentially could provide essential monitoring services and research for areas of the world that don’t have access to such information.
Conclusion
In closing, I want to reiterate a few points:
• Large utilities in the water sector are engaged to varying degrees in furthering our understanding of the implications of climate change and in preparing for the challenges it creates;
• We welcome additional federal collaboration that builds off of and expands existing monitoring and forecasting services and collaborative partnerships;
• Given the operational knowledge and institutional capacity of the water sector, a National Climate Service should be based on a geographically distributed but nationally coordinated structure that involves and complements the water sector’s tacit knowledge and experience.
Thank you again for the opportunity to testify this morning Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee.
WRITTEN TESTIMONY OF
DR. JANE LUBCHENCO
UNDER SECRETARY OF COMMERCE FOR OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE
AND NOAA ADMINISTRATOR
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U.S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
HEARING ON
“A NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE”
BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
May 5, 2009
Introduction
Chairman Baird, Ranking Member Inglis, and other members of the Subcommittee, I am pleased to speak with you today regarding NOAA’s vision for a National Climate Service and I am honored to be here as the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), one of the nation’s premiere science and stewardship agencies.
The climate challenge before us is real. Climate change impacts will touch nearly every aspect of our lives. Meeting the challenge requires an unprecedented need for climate information and services. NOAA, through its existing climate capabilities, partnerships, and networks, is already beginning to address these needs by providing high quality climate information and services that are user-friendly, responsive, and relevant.
For example, NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program is helping to realign our nation's climate research to better serve the nation through stakeholder-driven climate sciences that directly address society's needs and concerns. RISA scientists provide information that decision-makers can use to cope with drought, understand climatic influences on wildfire, and assess climate impacts on the transportation sector, coastal communities and human health.
The nation’s need for such user-driven climate services is increasing and NOAA recognizes the importance of responding to these increasing demands. To ensure that climate information and services are available to meet this requirement, the nation needs an authoritative and reliable source of climate information to support decision-making.
Today, I am here to discuss with you why the nation needs a National Climate Service. I will share with you our vision for how NOAA, in strong collaboration with other federal agencies, and a diversity of public and private sector partners, is ready to use its existing capabilities and develop new information, services and delivery mechanisms to lead such a Service.
The Earth’s climate is changing
There is unequivocal evidence that the Earth is warming. This warming can be seen in increases in global-average surface air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, rising sea level, and changes in many other climate-related variables and impacts. Most of the observed increases in global temperatures since the mid-20th century are very likely due to human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.1
Under a broad range of non-mitigation scenarios considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warming over this century is projected to be substantially larger than over the past century. Changes in many other components of the climate system (warming patterns being only one example) are also very likely to be larger than those observed in the present century. The prospects of such climate changes have profound implications for a global society, underscoring the need for scientific information to aid decision-makers in developing and evaluating options for mitigating future anthropogenic climate change as well as alternatives for adapting to a changing climate.
Within the United States, extensive climate-related changes have been documented over the last century. These include increases in continental-average temperatures, rising sea levels in many coastal locations, an increased frequency of extreme heavy rainfall events, lengthening of the growing season, earlier snowmelt, and altered river flow volumes. Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the potential impact varies. Drought is a serious problem in many regions, especially in the West and Southeast; and floods and water quality problems are likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions.
For example, the amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places. Many types of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and regional droughts, have become more frequent and intense during the past 40 to 50 years.
As a nation, our economic and social well-being is intricately tied to weather and climate, this relationship produces significant social and economic benefits and costs. Some examples include:
• Weather- and climate-sensitive industries, both directly and indirectly, account for about one-third of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product ($4 trillion in 2005 dollars, NOAA updated) ranging from finance, insurance, and real estate to services, retail and wholesale trade and manufacturing.
• Coral reefs world wide are among the ecosystems of highest risk of extreme degradation due to climate change. In 2002, Hawaii's coral reefs were valued at nearly $10 billion when combining recreational, amenity, fishery, and biodiversity values, with direct economic benefits of $360 million/year.
• Drought is estimated to result in average annual losses to all sectors of the economy of between $6-8 billion.
• Average annual damage from tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods is $11.4 billion, of which:
o hurricanes average $5.1 billion and 20 deaths per year;
o floods account for $5.2 billion, and average over 80 deaths per year, and
o tornadoes cause $1.1 billion in damages.
These types of weather and climate impacts are some of the many reasons why climate change matters.
Why does the nation need a National Climate Service (NCS)?
The impacts of our changing climate are regionally diverse and relevant across numerous sectors, including water, energy, transportation, forestry, coasts, fisheries, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health. These impacts are anticipated to grow in response to projected future climate change.
Until now, the systems and infrastructure that we as a nation have developed as the foundation of our water, energy, transportation, agriculture, and other sectors have been designed and built based on what we know about local environmental conditions, and our understanding of the past. In the same way, our approaches to the management and conservation of ecosystems and species have largely relied upon our scientific, historical understanding of those systems.
For example, water planning and management have been based on historical fluctuations in records of stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, temperature, and water demands. All aspects of water management including reservoir sizing, reservoir flood operations, maximum urban stormwater runoff amounts and projected water demands have been based on these records. Because climate change will significantly modify aspects of the water cycle, the assumption of an unchanging climate is no longer appropriate for many aspects of water planning.
In light of current changes already being realized and projections for increased change in the future, an evolution in our decision-making frameworks is needed at all levels and across all sectors. This evolution will necessitate development of and access to the best climate knowledge and information that science can provide, and tools to apply that data to guide our decision-making.
While varying capabilities for providing climate information currently exist in federal agencies and various other organizations, it is difficult for decision-makers to know where to turn for timely and reliable information to guide their development and analysis of options. In the continued absence of an authoritative source of information and tools, efforts to develop and execute policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change at all levels and across public and private sectors will continue to be fragmented and insular. Continued development of fragmented efforts could result in conflicting or apparently contradictory information, as well as unnecessary and inequitable economic, environmental, and societal costs.
As I mentioned during my confirmation hearing, I believe our country must rise to this new challenge and deal with the impacts of the changing climate head-on. In my work on the Pew Ocean Commission, I heard first-hand from businesses and state and local governments in communities all across this country about the need for reliable information and predictions about the impacts of climate change. From concern about droughts and sea level rise to changes in the chemistry of the ocean, there is a real hunger for more and better information. A National Climate Service is an idea whose time has come.
Unlike climate services, weather services are familiar to most citizens. Weather services focus on the description, analysis, and atmospheric forecasting on very short time scales, from minutes extending up to a period of one week to ten days. The objective is to provide forecasts of continually changing weather conditions and warnings of severe weather events to protect life and property. The benefits of this service are measured in lives saved, injuries avoided, and reduction in property damage. For example, through NOAA’s hurricane research to operations efforts, NOAA has improved wind speed estimates by 15 percent since 2004 and reduced track forecast error by 50 percent since 1990. These hurricane forecast improvements are estimated to save taxpayers $640,000 per non-evacuated mile.
In contrast to weather, climate refers to the longer-term statistical properties of the atmosphere—ocean—ice-land system. Climate variability and change are products of: (1) external factors, such as the sun; (2) complex interactions involving the different components of the earth system; and (3) human-induced changes to the earth system. Climate services encompass a variety of types of activities in order to address the range of short to long term variations and changes in climate, including those that are natural and human induced. Such activities are often associated with different types of users or decision-makers and with different types of needs and products. Improving development and targeting delivery of climate services through a National Climate Service offers untold economic, public health and safety, and national security benefits.
Through its existing capabilities, partners and networks, NOAA has already begun to provide climate information and services to address these needs; however, the pace and nature of these demands are expanding rapidly.
At a hearing this Committee held in May 2007, the Western Governors Association stated that “decision makers at all levels of government and in the private sector need reliable and timely information to understand the possible impacts and corresponding vulnerabilities that are posed by climate change so that they can plan and respond accordingly.”
Other examples of requests for climate services include:
• The wind power industry has identified a need for baseline data and future projections of wind measurements that would aid them in long term planning for wind energy development to ensure a return on their investment.
• Corn growers have requested regional and long term climate forecasts that would help them in making decisions about when and what they should grow.
• Federal agencies with land and water management mandates, such as the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers have requested scientific information and technical training on climate change impacts.
The increasing demand for authoritative climate information and services is clear.
A vision for a National Climate Service
I would now like to share with you a vision for a climate service that will guide our efforts to establish a National Climate Service. A National Climate Service that works in partnership with other federal agencies, various levels of government, and the private sector to provide credible and authoritative climate information and services to assist the nation, and by extension the world, with decision-making, including informing and evaluating policy options for climate change mitigation and adaptation. This concept of developing a National Climate Service as a point of accountability for providing climate services to the nation has been studied by NOAA, the National Academy of Sciences, external advisory groups, and by Members of this Committee. This vision for a National Climate Service has evolved from the findings of these studies, as well as input and feedback of public and private sector partners and constituents around the nation.
The overarching goal of a National Climate Service is to provide the essential climate change information needed for effective decision-making. As such, a National Climate Service must enable decision-makers, resource managers, and the public to better anticipate, plan, and respond to impacts of changing climate conditions. A National Climate Service will also ensure that it is open and engaged in climate change science to be credible and flexible, and to avoid insularity. Working with its partners, the Service will ensure the following core components of an ‘end-to-end’ climate service are planned, built, and sustained.
Core components include:
• a climate observing system and effective data management and delivery systems;
• problem-focused research and a close coupling with fundamental climate change research to establish scientific credibility of evolving products;
• climate modeling for predictions and projections;
• regional, national, and international assessments;
• ongoing, deliberate dialogue with users to understand evolving needs,
• tools and other products to support user decision-making;
• user outreach and capacity building; and
• public understanding
In order to build and maintain a bridge linking information with our users, the Service will provide science-based products and services that meet the key needs of government and society. Some of these products and services will be relevant for relatively short-term adaptation and mitigation decision support; others will be tailored to be relevant for longer term choices. Some will be operational in nature; others will involve assessments of the state of climate research.
The National Climate Service must have a clear set of principles regarding its products and services to ensure that it remains appropriately focused and managed in an effective way that best serves the nation. NOAA envisions a successful Service guided by the following principles:
• provide balanced, credible, cutting edge scientific and technical information;
• focus on anthropogenic climate change, but link human-caused climate change and variability to meet broad user needs;
• provide science-based products and services to minimize climate-related risks;
• provide predictions and projections relevant to decision support;
• strengthen observations, standards, and data stewardship;
• ensure timely assessments;
• inform policy options;
• inform regulatory decisions and management options of others; and
• foster climate literacy and workforce development
An effective response to the societal demands of a changing climate is well beyond the scope, authority, or mission of any one federal agency. NOAA commissioned an external review of the challenge of developing a National Climate Service. This external review recommended each federal agency collaboratively define its role and level of commitment in a National Climate Service, but made clear that there must be a lead federal entity. NOAA agrees with this recommendation and is ready to meet the challenge of leading a National Climate Service that, as the core of a broader climate service enterprise, would provide targeted climate information to the public and private sector for decision-making and climate service delivery.
As such, an effective National Climate Service will rely upon strong partnerships with and among federal agencies, and across levels of government, academia and the private sector to provide the nation with the climate services it needs. This vision also requires that NOAA integrate its own resources and coordinate efforts with its partners to ensure reliable delivery of climate services and information.
We will also aim to emulate the public-private partnership that makes today’s National Weather Service so successful. We would not be able to fully provide critical information to the nation without the private sector. We envision the government will develop and maintain an infrastructure of observation and information services on which the public (federal, state, and local governments), private, and academic sectors will rely. The private sector will be able to use data collected by this infrastructure to create unique products and services tailored to the needs of their company or clients. We believe this cooperative relationship will lead to an extensive and flourishing set of climate services that will be of great benefit to the U.S. public and to major sectors of the U.S. economy.
Addressing the evolving climate challenge will require supporting decision-makers not just for a few years, but over many decades. The National Climate Service must be highly-responsive to changing user needs and able to lead based upon expert evaluation of new data and knowledge. The scope and nature of user interactions and partnerships required to support this effort will demand an extraordinary investment in ensuring continuous feedback and adaptive learning among users and providers. Similarly, products and services must be able to evolve, and be initiated rapidly, in response to new scientific information. These complex characteristics and relationships will necessitate regular assessments and evaluations of progress, plans, user requirements, and outcomes as a core component of an adaptively-managed National Climate Service.
From NOAA’s current climate capabilities to a National Climate Service
The development of a National Climate Service will take leadership, sustained efforts across NOAA, and a commitment across the federal government to work collaboratively. While there is much work to be done to fully realize a National Climate Service, NOAA is already at the forefront of climate research and science, and currently delivers climate services today that generate significant social, economic, and environmental benefits for the nation.
NOAA’s current climate and climate-related capabilities and mandates
NOAA’s mission to understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs is well aligned to take on climate services. As the lead federal agency responsible for delivering national weather, climate, ocean, fishery, coastal, satellite and environmental data products and services, NOAA provides many of the scientific underpinnings required for an effective National Climate Service.
The breadth of NOAA’s climate and climate-related capabilities includes:
• A long history of building sustained partnerships and interacting with other federal agencies, the private sector, all levels of government (international, national, state, tribal, local), non-governmental organizations, and the public.
• Extensive experience in both weather and climate forecasts and predictions. Weather forecasts, seasonal outlooks, interannual-to-decadal predictions, and climate change projections require observations, models, and scientific understanding of the Earth system. NOAA has established a strong and sustained capability and infrastructure in all of these areas.
• Existing strengths in climate and earth system research and modeling put the agency in a unique position to support the nation with the best available science in the face of a changing climate. NOAA maintains a range of unique capabilities to understand and address key impacts of climate such as coastal hazards, ocean acidification, droughts and floods, and climate/air quality links.
• An exceptional record of leadership in climate change science and services to offer as a component of a broader national climate service enterprise. At an international level, NOAA has played a major role in informing policy decisions by contributing to scientific assessments including the World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environment Programme Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. NOAA has served as the lead agency of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and had a primary role in its predecessor, the U.S. Global Change Research Program. NOAA has led several of the CCSP synthesis and assessment products, including the forthcoming report on “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.”
• A unique breadth of mandates and experience in environmental service delivery that provide a strong foundation for a National Climate Service. NOAA’s mandated responsibilities include, for example: fisheries, endangered species and marine mammal management, National Marine Sanctuaries, and coastal and estuarine management. With each of these mandates, NOAA managers must account for the effects of climate variability and change on coastal and marine ecosystems, and resources and communities, as well as adapt their management practices accordingly. NOAA and its partners in coastal and marine resource managers are among the vanguard of users of climate information. In addition, the National Weather Service has an established and credible field infrastructure that currently delivers climate products daily at a national, regional, and local level.
• Sustained climate observing networks comprised of a suite of operational satellites and in situ networks for integrated atmospheric and oceanic observations, including measurements of air and ocean temperatures, greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone. NOAA also maintains the nation’s permanent archive of weather, climate, and oceanographic data through its data centers. NOAA provides analyses of the observed records, including the nation’s climate statistics and reanalysis of observations for initial conditions for climate prediction. With its wealth of observational data, NOAA makes major contributions to the process studies required to attribute the causes of climate change.
Transitioning to a National Climate Service
Through our existing statutory responsibilities under the National Climate Program Act of 1978 (15 U.S.C. §§ 2901-2908), NOAA has a long history of producing climate information, delivering products and services, and building the capacity of others through established networks and partnerships at all levels.
We expect that development of such an ‘end to end’ National Climate Service will stimulate advancements of similar stature as those generated through NOAA’s integrated weather services. For example, NOAA’s ‘end to end’ weather services have increased annual average lead times for tornados from less than 4 minutes in 1987 to almost 15 minutes today, and flash floods from less than 10 minutes in 1987 to better than 50 minutes today. Such advancements are estimated to have contributed to NOAA’s weather services preventing over 330 fatalities and 7800 injuries from tornadoes, and to have resulted in a socioeconomic benefit of over $3 billion between 1992 and 2004.
Development of a National Climate Service will begin by drawing from NOAA’s existing expertise, infrastructure, and capabilities in climate science; its extensive experience in service delivery; and its relationships with other federal, state, and local partners. NOAA’s existing climate products and services include climate data services, climate predictions and climate change projections, assessments, and decision support information.
Existing agency networks include the interagency partnerships that comprise the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), National Weather Service Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers, National Data Centers, Regional Integrated Science and Assessment projects at universities, State Climatologists, Sea Grant, the Coastal Services Center, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and extension agents.
Two examples illustrate NOAA’s experience as an authoritative source of climate information and provide a strong indication of the agency’s foundation for the development of an ‘end-to-end’ approach to climate services: (1) NOAA’s partnership with the National Association of Home Builders and Department of Housing and Urban Development, and (2) its leadership of NIDIS.
Partnership with the National Association of Home Builders and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) – NOAA performed a decade of research to develop an Air Freezing Index, which has now translated into operational use by the construction industry. Home builders can now construct a frost protected shallow foundation as a practical alternative to deeper, more-costly foundations in cold regions with seasonal ground freezing and the potential for frost heave. Proper construction of a frost protected shallow foundation is dependent upon NOAA’s Air Freezing Index, and incorporates strategically placed insulation to raise the frost depth around a building. NOAA’s air freezing research is estimated to provide an annual savings benefit to U.S. homeowners of $300 million saved in new construction costs and energy savings of 586,000 megawatt-hours (equivalent to 8.6 million gallons of gasoline).
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) – The growing impacts of drought on society led to a call by our state governors for drought preparedness information. NOAA’s implementation of the NIDIS Act of 2006 is being achieved through the coordination and collaboration of federal, state, tribal, academic, and local representatives on issues including water resources, agriculture, ecosystem impacts, energy and coastal environments. NIDIS is working to provide dynamic and easily accessible drought information for the nation by serving as an integrated knowledge center by identifying, collecting, and disseminating existing innovations at the national, regional, watershed, state, county, and private sector levels. NIDIS provides data to help decision-makers assess the risk of having too little water and to prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought (such as farmers making decisions about crops, forestry professionals planning ahead for the next fire season, and urban water managers preparing for high-demand seasons). Still in its initial phases, NIDIS is continually developing more robust services and regional decision support resources.
While significant in their own right, these examples are only a snapshot of how, through a National Climate Service, NOAA can apply its current climate capabilities and mandates to address the growing demand for climate services. As NOAA transitions to a National Climate Service, we will continue to develop and expand our products and services to assist a number of key social, economic, and environmental climate change decisions, particularly those at regional and national levels. Similarly, over time, the Service will progressively address and inform an ever-increasing number of adaptation and mitigation questions and customers.
Examples of emerging issues that a National Climate Service could address through collaborative and coordinated effort among federal agencies and other partners include:
Mainstreaming climate change adaptation for critical infrastructure – Current infrastructure design criteria and construction codes may be inadequate for climate change and exacerbate vulnerability to increasing storm intensity and flooding. For example, along the U.S. Gulf Coast, from Houston, Texas to Mobile, Alabama, 27 percent of major roads, 9 percent of rail lines, and 72 percent of ports in the area are built on land at or below 4 feet in elevation; a level within range of projections for relative sea-level rise in this region in this century. A National Climate Service would provide information that would allow the U.S. to relocate and/or secure these installments as well as improve planning for future infrastructure investments.
Delivering regional and decadal climate information – Currently, NOAA’s climate modeling efforts allow us to provide information at centennial and continental scales. With funds from the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009, NOAA will be able to continue to increase its computing power and re-focus climate models in order to provide information at decadal and regional scales in addition to centennial and continental scales. This new information will open the door to opportunities for a National Climate Service to develop and work with its partners to deliver authoritative products and services to users at scales previously not possible.
National security - Climate change has the potential to affect national security by reducing predictability and stability throughout the world, for example, through disruptions resulting from food and water shortage. The U.S. will also need to anticipate and plan for growing immigration pressures both at home and in other countries. A National Climate Service could help to prepare for and adapt to these changes by providing the observations and forecasts that can be utilized by agencies such as U.S. Agency for International Development and the Department of State to develop policies and action to mitigate these impacts (e.g. new agricultural practices).
Again, transitioning to a National Climate Service will take leadership; sustained efforts across NOAA; and a commitment across the federal government to work collaboratively. Much work lies ahead of us, but NOAA is well positioned to lead this effort by building on its existing capabilities, partnerships and networks to deliver an evolving suite of climate information and services.
Concluding Remarks
This is a time of rapid change. The pace and nature of changes in the Earth’s climate reinforce the need for delivering targeted climate services at appropriate scales to guide effective decision-making now and into the future. NOAA is committed to leading this effort through the transition of its climate services into a National Climate Service, but solving the climate challenge cannot be done in isolation. The effort will require sustained collaboration and innovative partnerships between government agencies, institutions, and the private sector. I look forward to working with this Committee and our partners as NOAA moves forward with this important effort.
Thank you very much for the opportunity to testify today. I look forward to answering your questions.
Good morning Chairman Baird, Ranking Member Inglis and Members of the Subcommittee. Thank for this opportunity to testify before your committee today. My name is Paul Fleming, I am the Manager of the Climate and Sustainability Group at Seattle Public Utilities (SPU). SPU provides reliable drinking water to 1.3 million people in the greater Seattle area, and provides sewer, drainage and solid waste services to Seattle residents. My position at SPU is responsible for developing SPU’s climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, and establishing partnerships with other utilities and research organizations in the U.S. and abroad.
SPU, like many water utilities in the US, is an active participant in numerous water sector climate change initiatives related to the management, policy and technical challenges and research needs that arise from the projected impacts of climate change. We are one of the founding members of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), a group of eight urban water suppliers that collectively provide drinking water services to nearly 36 million people. WUCA is currently funding two projects: one on decision support systems for the water sector and another on an assessment of climate modeling. SPU is also active in the climate change initiatives of the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies, the American Water Works Association and the International Water Association. SPU is currently advising both the Water Research Foundation and the Water Environment Research Foundation as they develop their climate change research agendas for the drinking water and clean water sectors respectively and continue their leadership roles in supporting emerging research. We are also reaching out to utilities and researchers in an effort to glean best practices from other parts of the world. This engagement with multiple entities reflects SPU’s belief in the importance of climate change for the water sector and our commitment to continually enhance our institutional capacity to prepare for the implications of climate change. This depth of engagement, understanding and commitment is common to varying degrees amongst numerous large water utilities in the U.S.
The City of Seattle has made addressing climate change a top priority. Our mayor, Greg Nickels, has been the leader in an effort to engage other mayors across the political spectrum on the issue of climate change and the need to take local actions. In addition, the City’s municipally-owned electric utility, Seattle City Light, will likely see significant impacts to its hydropower-based operations as climate change affect our region. They support my testimony here today.
Today, I will highlight some of the existing federal monitoring and forecasting services Seattle relies on for water supply system operations and planning, describe how we use these services to help ensure that we meet our responsibilities and policy objectives and describe attributes that we would like to see in a National Climate Service.
Seattle’s use of Federal Monitoring and Forecasting Services
Seattle’s water supply is derived from two watersheds located in the Central Cascade Mountains in Washington State: the Cedar River and Tolt River Watersheds. These watersheds receive precipitation in the form of rain and snow. Seattle manages these watersheds, the Cedar and Tolt Rivers, and our mountain-based reservoirs, to achieve the following objectives:
• Water supply for people
• Instream flows for aquatic species
• Flood management
• Dam safety
• Water quality
Given the dynamic nature of managing our water supply system, with our multiple objectives, capricious weather and the need to balance immediate and short term issues with longer term planning horizons, it is critical that we have access to real-time monitoring and forecasting information. Seattle relies on several federal agency monitoring and forecasting services to help inform our decision-making. These services include, but are not limited to:
• US Geological Survey’s (USGS) stream gages
• Natural Resources Conservation Service’s (NRCS) SnoTel sites
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service’s weather observations and daily and mid range weather forecasts,
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s 30-90 day and multi-seasonal climate outlooks
• NOAA’s Remote Sensing of Snowcover
Seattle uses these services and others for operational planning at multiple time scales, from day to day to several months out, to manage our rivers and reservoirs in order to meet our objectives. USGS gages are used to help us comply with our landmark Cedar River Habitat Conservation Plan and to protect salmon habitat and salmon redds on the Cedar River. The National Weather Service’s general weather forecasts inform our reservoir operations and help us time releases of water. NRCS’s SnoTel sites provide us with estimates of snowpack which we can use to project how much water is embedded in the snow blanketing the hills in our watersheds. These services are our eyes and ears on the ground as well as the binoculars peering over the horizon. These services also serve as an authoritative and credible source of information, which is critical for the type of collaborative resourc management decision-making that we engage in on a regular basis.
In addition to using these services, Seattle provides financial and in-kind support for some of them. The Tolt and Cedar River Basins are extensively gauged and networked, partially as a result of a cooperative funding arrangement between SPU, Seattle City Light and USGS. In 2009, SPU will contribute roughly $125,000 towards this arrangement. We greatly appreciate this arrangement and the excellent work of the Tacoma, Washington Office of the USGS. For the NRCS’s SnoTel program, we provide in-kind surveying of the land where their equipment is located. We have invested in these systems and appreciate and depend on continued federal support for them.
Another federal service we have used is NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) program. In the Pacific Northwest, the RISA program is represented by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW-CIG). UW-CIG has been instrumental in helping to elevate the issue of climate change in the central Puget Sound region and Washington State. The research UW-CIG has conducted has greatly advanced the region’s ability to understand how climate change is projected to affect different sectors of the region and state. Seattle benefited directly from engaging with the UW-CIG to conduct two studies within the past five years on how climate change is projected to affect the hydrology of the watersheds where we operate.
The most recent study we completed involved the creation of three climate scenarios that were based on three Global Climate Models (GCMs) coupled with two emission scenarios and downscaled to the central Puget Sound region. The three scenarios projected decreases in our water supply ranging from 6% to 21% by 2050 due to climate change. Given this projected range of impacts, we then developed initial adaptation strategies and evaluated their effectiveness in offsetting the reductions in supply. The first strategies we’ve evaluated were “no-regrets” strategies: operational adjustments that are low to no-cost, enhance our operational flexibility and which could be implemented quickly. By deploying this initial portfolio of strategies we estimated we could offset the impacts of climate change in two out of the three climate scenarios.
This assessment also reinforced the role of water conservation as an essential component of our climate change strategy. Since 1984, our total water consumption has declined by 28% while population has grown by 26%. As a result, water consumption per capita is 43% less than it was a year ago. This has been due to the combined effects of higher water rates (and a seasonal and inclining block rate structure), the Washington State plumbing code, over two decades of aggressive conservation programs, and improved system operations. We are also committed to saving an additional fifteen million gallons a day (mgd) through conservation programs over the next 20 years. By 2030, we project that water demand will still be less than it was in 1965 even though we'll be serving 80% more people.
This engagement with the research community has strengthened Seattle’s knowledge of the implications of climate change, stimulated our development of initial adaptation strategies and enhanced our institutional capacity. We look forward to continued interaction with UW-CIG, federal agencies and the research community as a whole in the co-production of knowledge.
A National Climate Service
It is often noted that water utilities are on the “front lines” of, or “first responders” in, the battle against climate change. While this characterization is apt, it doesn’t fully capture the breadth of activities the water sector pursues in operating and managing our systems and in identifying and preparing for the impacts of climate change. To continue with the martial metaphor, we’re not just on the front lines, but we’re also in the war room gleaning intelligence data from original research and reconnaissance we have conducted; we’re often using satellite data to determine how much resources (e.g. water) we have to utilize; we’re assessing threat levels through vulnerability assessments, developing new tools to counter those threats, and building alliances to share information and resources. The broad spectrum of strategic and tactical activities that the water sector is engaged in illustrate that we take the issue of climate change seriously and that we have the capability to do a lot of work. We need, however, the support of, and continued collaboration with, the federal government and welcome an integrated and user-driven National Climate Service that hastens our ability to identify and prepare for the impacts of climate change.
As an active user of several federal services and as a partner and collaborator with numerous federal programs, Seattle believes there are potentially great benefits associated with the creation of a National Climate Service. Having extensive experience with NOAA’s RISA program, we view that as a potential model, particularly given its distributed geographic structure. Such a structure has the potential of establishing strong linkages between the research community and the relevant sectors in a given region and creating tailored research and services that help to address a region’s needs. If it were to serve as a potential framework for a NCS, the RISA model, however, would need to be strengthened and expanded along the following lines:
• Involve multiple federal agencies in the provision of services. The water sector uses the services of, interacts with and is regulated by several agencies. Having multiple agencies involved in the NCS and viewing it as an authoritative source of climate information would facilitate our interactions with these agencies.
• Involve multiple sectors in the development and implementation of programs and services provided by the NCS. As I have noted before, the water sector is engaged on the issue of climate change and is enhancing its capacity to understand and prepare for the impacts. The NCS should recognize this capacity and view the water sector not just as an end-user but as a collaborator as well. This is particularly salient with respect to vulnerability assessments, where a utility’s tacit knowledge of its system operations can “ground truth” the assessment and identify and evaluate the effectiveness of operational adjustments. Such an emphasis could also help to complement the current university context for RISA program delivery.
• Ensure there is consistency across the distributed structure by establishing a common set of goals, objectives, and tenets across the country so that the NCS is responsive to the water sector’s need for “actionable science” and that the distributed “branches” of the NCS are well coordinated.
• Increase overall funding for an NCS while maintaining and expanding, if necessary, existing monitoring networks and forecasting services. These services are essential for operations and planning today and will be even more critical in the future;
• Build upon existing partnerships that are effective in delivering services. As noted previously Seattle has established relationships with USGS and NRCS to support the ongoing operations and maintenance of stream flow and snowpack monitoring infrastructure.
• Establish a structure that allows for an option to scale the services beyond the U.S. As the federal government continues to engage internationally on climate change, there is great potential for the U.S. to assist other countries in enhancing their adaptive capacity as well as learning from them while also addressing potential national security issues. Through appropriate agreements or perhaps as part of foreign aid programs, the National Climate Service potentially could provide essential monitoring services and research for areas of the world that don’t have access to such information.
Conclusion
In closing, I want to reiterate a few points:
• Large utilities in the water sector are engaged to varying degrees in furthering our understanding of the implications of climate change and in preparing for the challenges it creates;
• We welcome additional federal collaboration that builds off of and expands existing monitoring and forecasting services and collaborative partnerships;
• Given the operational knowledge and institutional capacity of the water sector, a National Climate Service should be based on a geographically distributed but nationally coordinated structure that involves and complements the water sector’s tacit knowledge and experience.
Thank you again for the opportunity to testify this morning Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee.
WRITTEN TESTIMONY OF
DR. JANE LUBCHENCO
UNDER SECRETARY OF COMMERCE FOR OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE
AND NOAA ADMINISTRATOR
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U.S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
HEARING ON
“A NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE”
BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
May 5, 2009
Introduction
Chairman Baird, Ranking Member Inglis, and other members of the Subcommittee, I am pleased to speak with you today regarding NOAA’s vision for a National Climate Service and I am honored to be here as the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), one of the nation’s premiere science and stewardship agencies.
The climate challenge before us is real. Climate change impacts will touch nearly every aspect of our lives. Meeting the challenge requires an unprecedented need for climate information and services. NOAA, through its existing climate capabilities, partnerships, and networks, is already beginning to address these needs by providing high quality climate information and services that are user-friendly, responsive, and relevant.
For example, NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program is helping to realign our nation's climate research to better serve the nation through stakeholder-driven climate sciences that directly address society's needs and concerns. RISA scientists provide information that decision-makers can use to cope with drought, understand climatic influences on wildfire, and assess climate impacts on the transportation sector, coastal communities and human health.
The nation’s need for such user-driven climate services is increasing and NOAA recognizes the importance of responding to these increasing demands. To ensure that climate information and services are available to meet this requirement, the nation needs an authoritative and reliable source of climate information to support decision-making.
Today, I am here to discuss with you why the nation needs a National Climate Service. I will share with you our vision for how NOAA, in strong collaboration with other federal agencies, and a diversity of public and private sector partners, is ready to use its existing capabilities and develop new information, services and delivery mechanisms to lead such a Service.
The Earth’s climate is changing
There is unequivocal evidence that the Earth is warming. This warming can be seen in increases in global-average surface air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, rising sea level, and changes in many other climate-related variables and impacts. Most of the observed increases in global temperatures since the mid-20th century are very likely due to human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.1
Under a broad range of non-mitigation scenarios considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warming over this century is projected to be substantially larger than over the past century. Changes in many other components of the climate system (warming patterns being only one example) are also very likely to be larger than those observed in the present century. The prospects of such climate changes have profound implications for a global society, underscoring the need for scientific information to aid decision-makers in developing and evaluating options for mitigating future anthropogenic climate change as well as alternatives for adapting to a changing climate.
Within the United States, extensive climate-related changes have been documented over the last century. These include increases in continental-average temperatures, rising sea levels in many coastal locations, an increased frequency of extreme heavy rainfall events, lengthening of the growing season, earlier snowmelt, and altered river flow volumes. Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the potential impact varies. Drought is a serious problem in many regions, especially in the West and Southeast; and floods and water quality problems are likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions.
For example, the amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places. Many types of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and regional droughts, have become more frequent and intense during the past 40 to 50 years.
As a nation, our economic and social well-being is intricately tied to weather and climate, this relationship produces significant social and economic benefits and costs. Some examples include:
• Weather- and climate-sensitive industries, both directly and indirectly, account for about one-third of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product ($4 trillion in 2005 dollars, NOAA updated) ranging from finance, insurance, and real estate to services, retail and wholesale trade and manufacturing.
• Coral reefs world wide are among the ecosystems of highest risk of extreme degradation due to climate change. In 2002, Hawaii's coral reefs were valued at nearly $10 billion when combining recreational, amenity, fishery, and biodiversity values, with direct economic benefits of $360 million/year.
• Drought is estimated to result in average annual losses to all sectors of the economy of between $6-8 billion.
• Average annual damage from tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods is $11.4 billion, of which:
o hurricanes average $5.1 billion and 20 deaths per year;
o floods account for $5.2 billion, and average over 80 deaths per year, and
o tornadoes cause $1.1 billion in damages.
These types of weather and climate impacts are some of the many reasons why climate change matters.
Why does the nation need a National Climate Service (NCS)?
The impacts of our changing climate are regionally diverse and relevant across numerous sectors, including water, energy, transportation, forestry, coasts, fisheries, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health. These impacts are anticipated to grow in response to projected future climate change.
Until now, the systems and infrastructure that we as a nation have developed as the foundation of our water, energy, transportation, agriculture, and other sectors have been designed and built based on what we know about local environmental conditions, and our understanding of the past. In the same way, our approaches to the management and conservation of ecosystems and species have largely relied upon our scientific, historical understanding of those systems.
For example, water planning and management have been based on historical fluctuations in records of stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, temperature, and water demands. All aspects of water management including reservoir sizing, reservoir flood operations, maximum urban stormwater runoff amounts and projected water demands have been based on these records. Because climate change will significantly modify aspects of the water cycle, the assumption of an unchanging climate is no longer appropriate for many aspects of water planning.
In light of current changes already being realized and projections for increased change in the future, an evolution in our decision-making frameworks is needed at all levels and across all sectors. This evolution will necessitate development of and access to the best climate knowledge and information that science can provide, and tools to apply that data to guide our decision-making.
While varying capabilities for providing climate information currently exist in federal agencies and various other organizations, it is difficult for decision-makers to know where to turn for timely and reliable information to guide their development and analysis of options. In the continued absence of an authoritative source of information and tools, efforts to develop and execute policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change at all levels and across public and private sectors will continue to be fragmented and insular. Continued development of fragmented efforts could result in conflicting or apparently contradictory information, as well as unnecessary and inequitable economic, environmental, and societal costs.
As I mentioned during my confirmation hearing, I believe our country must rise to this new challenge and deal with the impacts of the changing climate head-on. In my work on the Pew Ocean Commission, I heard first-hand from businesses and state and local governments in communities all across this country about the need for reliable information and predictions about the impacts of climate change. From concern about droughts and sea level rise to changes in the chemistry of the ocean, there is a real hunger for more and better information. A National Climate Service is an idea whose time has come.
Unlike climate services, weather services are familiar to most citizens. Weather services focus on the description, analysis, and atmospheric forecasting on very short time scales, from minutes extending up to a period of one week to ten days. The objective is to provide forecasts of continually changing weather conditions and warnings of severe weather events to protect life and property. The benefits of this service are measured in lives saved, injuries avoided, and reduction in property damage. For example, through NOAA’s hurricane research to operations efforts, NOAA has improved wind speed estimates by 15 percent since 2004 and reduced track forecast error by 50 percent since 1990. These hurricane forecast improvements are estimated to save taxpayers $640,000 per non-evacuated mile.
In contrast to weather, climate refers to the longer-term statistical properties of the atmosphere—ocean—ice-land system. Climate variability and change are products of: (1) external factors, such as the sun; (2) complex interactions involving the different components of the earth system; and (3) human-induced changes to the earth system. Climate services encompass a variety of types of activities in order to address the range of short to long term variations and changes in climate, including those that are natural and human induced. Such activities are often associated with different types of users or decision-makers and with different types of needs and products. Improving development and targeting delivery of climate services through a National Climate Service offers untold economic, public health and safety, and national security benefits.
Through its existing capabilities, partners and networks, NOAA has already begun to provide climate information and services to address these needs; however, the pace and nature of these demands are expanding rapidly.
At a hearing this Committee held in May 2007, the Western Governors Association stated that “decision makers at all levels of government and in the private sector need reliable and timely information to understand the possible impacts and corresponding vulnerabilities that are posed by climate change so that they can plan and respond accordingly.”
Other examples of requests for climate services include:
• The wind power industry has identified a need for baseline data and future projections of wind measurements that would aid them in long term planning for wind energy development to ensure a return on their investment.
• Corn growers have requested regional and long term climate forecasts that would help them in making decisions about when and what they should grow.
• Federal agencies with land and water management mandates, such as the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers have requested scientific information and technical training on climate change impacts.
The increasing demand for authoritative climate information and services is clear.
A vision for a National Climate Service
I would now like to share with you a vision for a climate service that will guide our efforts to establish a National Climate Service. A National Climate Service that works in partnership with other federal agencies, various levels of government, and the private sector to provide credible and authoritative climate information and services to assist the nation, and by extension the world, with decision-making, including informing and evaluating policy options for climate change mitigation and adaptation. This concept of developing a National Climate Service as a point of accountability for providing climate services to the nation has been studied by NOAA, the National Academy of Sciences, external advisory groups, and by Members of this Committee. This vision for a National Climate Service has evolved from the findings of these studies, as well as input and feedback of public and private sector partners and constituents around the nation.
The overarching goal of a National Climate Service is to provide the essential climate change information needed for effective decision-making. As such, a National Climate Service must enable decision-makers, resource managers, and the public to better anticipate, plan, and respond to impacts of changing climate conditions. A National Climate Service will also ensure that it is open and engaged in climate change science to be credible and flexible, and to avoid insularity. Working with its partners, the Service will ensure the following core components of an ‘end-to-end’ climate service are planned, built, and sustained.
Core components include:
• a climate observing system and effective data management and delivery systems;
• problem-focused research and a close coupling with fundamental climate change research to establish scientific credibility of evolving products;
• climate modeling for predictions and projections;
• regional, national, and international assessments;
• ongoing, deliberate dialogue with users to understand evolving needs,
• tools and other products to support user decision-making;
• user outreach and capacity building; and
• public understanding
In order to build and maintain a bridge linking information with our users, the Service will provide science-based products and services that meet the key needs of government and society. Some of these products and services will be relevant for relatively short-term adaptation and mitigation decision support; others will be tailored to be relevant for longer term choices. Some will be operational in nature; others will involve assessments of the state of climate research.
The National Climate Service must have a clear set of principles regarding its products and services to ensure that it remains appropriately focused and managed in an effective way that best serves the nation. NOAA envisions a successful Service guided by the following principles:
• provide balanced, credible, cutting edge scientific and technical information;
• focus on anthropogenic climate change, but link human-caused climate change and variability to meet broad user needs;
• provide science-based products and services to minimize climate-related risks;
• provide predictions and projections relevant to decision support;
• strengthen observations, standards, and data stewardship;
• ensure timely assessments;
• inform policy options;
• inform regulatory decisions and management options of others; and
• foster climate literacy and workforce development
An effective response to the societal demands of a changing climate is well beyond the scope, authority, or mission of any one federal agency. NOAA commissioned an external review of the challenge of developing a National Climate Service. This external review recommended each federal agency collaboratively define its role and level of commitment in a National Climate Service, but made clear that there must be a lead federal entity. NOAA agrees with this recommendation and is ready to meet the challenge of leading a National Climate Service that, as the core of a broader climate service enterprise, would provide targeted climate information to the public and private sector for decision-making and climate service delivery.
As such, an effective National Climate Service will rely upon strong partnerships with and among federal agencies, and across levels of government, academia and the private sector to provide the nation with the climate services it needs. This vision also requires that NOAA integrate its own resources and coordinate efforts with its partners to ensure reliable delivery of climate services and information.
We will also aim to emulate the public-private partnership that makes today’s National Weather Service so successful. We would not be able to fully provide critical information to the nation without the private sector. We envision the government will develop and maintain an infrastructure of observation and information services on which the public (federal, state, and local governments), private, and academic sectors will rely. The private sector will be able to use data collected by this infrastructure to create unique products and services tailored to the needs of their company or clients. We believe this cooperative relationship will lead to an extensive and flourishing set of climate services that will be of great benefit to the U.S. public and to major sectors of the U.S. economy.
Addressing the evolving climate challenge will require supporting decision-makers not just for a few years, but over many decades. The National Climate Service must be highly-responsive to changing user needs and able to lead based upon expert evaluation of new data and knowledge. The scope and nature of user interactions and partnerships required to support this effort will demand an extraordinary investment in ensuring continuous feedback and adaptive learning among users and providers. Similarly, products and services must be able to evolve, and be initiated rapidly, in response to new scientific information. These complex characteristics and relationships will necessitate regular assessments and evaluations of progress, plans, user requirements, and outcomes as a core component of an adaptively-managed National Climate Service.
From NOAA’s current climate capabilities to a National Climate Service
The development of a National Climate Service will take leadership, sustained efforts across NOAA, and a commitment across the federal government to work collaboratively. While there is much work to be done to fully realize a National Climate Service, NOAA is already at the forefront of climate research and science, and currently delivers climate services today that generate significant social, economic, and environmental benefits for the nation.
NOAA’s current climate and climate-related capabilities and mandates
NOAA’s mission to understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs is well aligned to take on climate services. As the lead federal agency responsible for delivering national weather, climate, ocean, fishery, coastal, satellite and environmental data products and services, NOAA provides many of the scientific underpinnings required for an effective National Climate Service.
The breadth of NOAA’s climate and climate-related capabilities includes:
• A long history of building sustained partnerships and interacting with other federal agencies, the private sector, all levels of government (international, national, state, tribal, local), non-governmental organizations, and the public.
• Extensive experience in both weather and climate forecasts and predictions. Weather forecasts, seasonal outlooks, interannual-to-decadal predictions, and climate change projections require observations, models, and scientific understanding of the Earth system. NOAA has established a strong and sustained capability and infrastructure in all of these areas.
• Existing strengths in climate and earth system research and modeling put the agency in a unique position to support the nation with the best available science in the face of a changing climate. NOAA maintains a range of unique capabilities to understand and address key impacts of climate such as coastal hazards, ocean acidification, droughts and floods, and climate/air quality links.
• An exceptional record of leadership in climate change science and services to offer as a component of a broader national climate service enterprise. At an international level, NOAA has played a major role in informing policy decisions by contributing to scientific assessments including the World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environment Programme Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. NOAA has served as the lead agency of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and had a primary role in its predecessor, the U.S. Global Change Research Program. NOAA has led several of the CCSP synthesis and assessment products, including the forthcoming report on “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.”
• A unique breadth of mandates and experience in environmental service delivery that provide a strong foundation for a National Climate Service. NOAA’s mandated responsibilities include, for example: fisheries, endangered species and marine mammal management, National Marine Sanctuaries, and coastal and estuarine management. With each of these mandates, NOAA managers must account for the effects of climate variability and change on coastal and marine ecosystems, and resources and communities, as well as adapt their management practices accordingly. NOAA and its partners in coastal and marine resource managers are among the vanguard of users of climate information. In addition, the National Weather Service has an established and credible field infrastructure that currently delivers climate products daily at a national, regional, and local level.
• Sustained climate observing networks comprised of a suite of operational satellites and in situ networks for integrated atmospheric and oceanic observations, including measurements of air and ocean temperatures, greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone. NOAA also maintains the nation’s permanent archive of weather, climate, and oceanographic data through its data centers. NOAA provides analyses of the observed records, including the nation’s climate statistics and reanalysis of observations for initial conditions for climate prediction. With its wealth of observational data, NOAA makes major contributions to the process studies required to attribute the causes of climate change.
Transitioning to a National Climate Service
Through our existing statutory responsibilities under the National Climate Program Act of 1978 (15 U.S.C. §§ 2901-2908), NOAA has a long history of producing climate information, delivering products and services, and building the capacity of others through established networks and partnerships at all levels.
We expect that development of such an ‘end to end’ National Climate Service will stimulate advancements of similar stature as those generated through NOAA’s integrated weather services. For example, NOAA’s ‘end to end’ weather services have increased annual average lead times for tornados from less than 4 minutes in 1987 to almost 15 minutes today, and flash floods from less than 10 minutes in 1987 to better than 50 minutes today. Such advancements are estimated to have contributed to NOAA’s weather services preventing over 330 fatalities and 7800 injuries from tornadoes, and to have resulted in a socioeconomic benefit of over $3 billion between 1992 and 2004.
Development of a National Climate Service will begin by drawing from NOAA’s existing expertise, infrastructure, and capabilities in climate science; its extensive experience in service delivery; and its relationships with other federal, state, and local partners. NOAA’s existing climate products and services include climate data services, climate predictions and climate change projections, assessments, and decision support information.
Existing agency networks include the interagency partnerships that comprise the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), National Weather Service Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers, National Data Centers, Regional Integrated Science and Assessment projects at universities, State Climatologists, Sea Grant, the Coastal Services Center, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and extension agents.
Two examples illustrate NOAA’s experience as an authoritative source of climate information and provide a strong indication of the agency’s foundation for the development of an ‘end-to-end’ approach to climate services: (1) NOAA’s partnership with the National Association of Home Builders and Department of Housing and Urban Development, and (2) its leadership of NIDIS.
Partnership with the National Association of Home Builders and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) – NOAA performed a decade of research to develop an Air Freezing Index, which has now translated into operational use by the construction industry. Home builders can now construct a frost protected shallow foundation as a practical alternative to deeper, more-costly foundations in cold regions with seasonal ground freezing and the potential for frost heave. Proper construction of a frost protected shallow foundation is dependent upon NOAA’s Air Freezing Index, and incorporates strategically placed insulation to raise the frost depth around a building. NOAA’s air freezing research is estimated to provide an annual savings benefit to U.S. homeowners of $300 million saved in new construction costs and energy savings of 586,000 megawatt-hours (equivalent to 8.6 million gallons of gasoline).
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) – The growing impacts of drought on society led to a call by our state governors for drought preparedness information. NOAA’s implementation of the NIDIS Act of 2006 is being achieved through the coordination and collaboration of federal, state, tribal, academic, and local representatives on issues including water resources, agriculture, ecosystem impacts, energy and coastal environments. NIDIS is working to provide dynamic and easily accessible drought information for the nation by serving as an integrated knowledge center by identifying, collecting, and disseminating existing innovations at the national, regional, watershed, state, county, and private sector levels. NIDIS provides data to help decision-makers assess the risk of having too little water and to prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought (such as farmers making decisions about crops, forestry professionals planning ahead for the next fire season, and urban water managers preparing for high-demand seasons). Still in its initial phases, NIDIS is continually developing more robust services and regional decision support resources.
While significant in their own right, these examples are only a snapshot of how, through a National Climate Service, NOAA can apply its current climate capabilities and mandates to address the growing demand for climate services. As NOAA transitions to a National Climate Service, we will continue to develop and expand our products and services to assist a number of key social, economic, and environmental climate change decisions, particularly those at regional and national levels. Similarly, over time, the Service will progressively address and inform an ever-increasing number of adaptation and mitigation questions and customers.
Examples of emerging issues that a National Climate Service could address through collaborative and coordinated effort among federal agencies and other partners include:
Mainstreaming climate change adaptation for critical infrastructure – Current infrastructure design criteria and construction codes may be inadequate for climate change and exacerbate vulnerability to increasing storm intensity and flooding. For example, along the U.S. Gulf Coast, from Houston, Texas to Mobile, Alabama, 27 percent of major roads, 9 percent of rail lines, and 72 percent of ports in the area are built on land at or below 4 feet in elevation; a level within range of projections for relative sea-level rise in this region in this century. A National Climate Service would provide information that would allow the U.S. to relocate and/or secure these installments as well as improve planning for future infrastructure investments.
Delivering regional and decadal climate information – Currently, NOAA’s climate modeling efforts allow us to provide information at centennial and continental scales. With funds from the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009, NOAA will be able to continue to increase its computing power and re-focus climate models in order to provide information at decadal and regional scales in addition to centennial and continental scales. This new information will open the door to opportunities for a National Climate Service to develop and work with its partners to deliver authoritative products and services to users at scales previously not possible.
National security - Climate change has the potential to affect national security by reducing predictability and stability throughout the world, for example, through disruptions resulting from food and water shortage. The U.S. will also need to anticipate and plan for growing immigration pressures both at home and in other countries. A National Climate Service could help to prepare for and adapt to these changes by providing the observations and forecasts that can be utilized by agencies such as U.S. Agency for International Development and the Department of State to develop policies and action to mitigate these impacts (e.g. new agricultural practices).
Again, transitioning to a National Climate Service will take leadership; sustained efforts across NOAA; and a commitment across the federal government to work collaboratively. Much work lies ahead of us, but NOAA is well positioned to lead this effort by building on its existing capabilities, partnerships and networks to deliver an evolving suite of climate information and services.
Concluding Remarks
This is a time of rapid change. The pace and nature of changes in the Earth’s climate reinforce the need for delivering targeted climate services at appropriate scales to guide effective decision-making now and into the future. NOAA is committed to leading this effort through the transition of its climate services into a National Climate Service, but solving the climate challenge cannot be done in isolation. The effort will require sustained collaboration and innovative partnerships between government agencies, institutions, and the private sector. I look forward to working with this Committee and our partners as NOAA moves forward with this important effort.
Thank you very much for the opportunity to testify today. I look forward to answering your questions.
